Profound geopolitical shifts and strategic repositioning in complex, interconnected energy and sustainability ecosystems will shape energy markets in 2026.
S&P Global’s Horizons Top Trends 2026 discover the key trends to watch as the energy sector seeks to grow, modernize and decarbonize in response to projections of unprecedented energy demand growth. According to the analysis, expanding energy systems and achieving sustainability are interrelated policies that shape countries’ economic competitiveness and geopolitical influence.
Main expectations:
- As AI uptake soars in 2026, energy supply and sustainability commitments face a breaking point – Spending on US data centers nears $500 billion in 2026
- Solar peaks (for now): First annual slowdown in renewables additions in 2026 – For the first time ever, global solar additions are expected to decline year over year, albeit by less than 10%.
- Grid modernization becomes a key constraint in energy security, transition and competitiveness – The energy expansion required to satisfy AI-driven demand growth will only move as fast as the grid allows.
- Flexible PPAs become the new standard as price volatility reshapes risk management
- As the rest of the world slows down, China gets serious about green hydrogen
- Global trade and climate policy is increasingly focused on harmonizing emissions reporting
- With emissions potentially driving a 2.3-degree-C temperature rise by 2040, adaptation shifts from optional to essential in 2026 – the increasingly urgent question is no longer whether companies will adapt, but how — and how quickly.
>> Read the full report at Horizons Top Trends 2026 | S&P Global
